The Frog Pond #28: Solar storms of past, present, and future
Giant sunspots similar in size to those that caused the strongest solar storms in human history have been sighted—but what does that mean?
Giant sunspots similar in size to those that caused the strongest solar storms in human history have been sighted—but what does that mean?
The sun's magnetic freckles
Have you ever seen a high-res photo of the sun that shows a few darker spots? Those are sunspots, and they're areas with lower surface temperature1. This dip is caused by magnetic flux that disrupts convection, or the flow of heat through fluids/fluid-like material2. Sunspots appear in "active regions", basically an area of the Sun's surface that's being impacted by a strong or complex magnetic field3. The frequency and locations of these spots depend on the Solar cycle4.
Solar cycle? Like a lunar cycle?
Not quite. The Solar cycle, also known as the Schwabe cycle, are periodic 11-year changes in the Sun's activity. We can measure the changes in the number of sunspots, as well as solar flares and coronal loops5. During these cycles, there's a period of minimum activity, then a period of maximum activity, then the Sun returns to minimum. The magnetic field of the Sun flips during each cycle when it reaches its maximum activity. These cycles change aurora intensity on Earth, impact space and ground technology, and impacts interplanetary space5.
We are currently in Solar cycle 25, a.k.a. the 25th cycle since 1755, when recording of the solar spots began6. Solar cycle activity can be measured over the past 11,400 years based on carbon-14 and beryllium-10 isotope dating7. Solar cycle 25, ending around 2030, has been much stronger than predicted so far.
But first: What's happened during past periods of strong sunspot activity?
Solar cycle past: The Carrington Event
Solar cycle 10, in 1859, caused the most intense geomagnetic storm in recorded history8. From September 1-2, a geomagnetic storm disturbed the Earth's magnetosphere, compressing it under solar wind pressure and increased the plasma movement through the magnetosphere. Enhanced currents weakened the Earth's Sun-facing magnetic field and pushed the magnetopause, or the boundary of the magnetosphere, inward towards Earth9. These disturbances caused strong auroras and took down parts of the U.S. telegraph network, starting fires and shocking telegraph operators10.
The geomagnetically induced current caused the telegraph systems to fail, and in some cases powered the lines despite their power supplies being disconnected. This caused telegraphers in Massachusetts and Maine to relay messages to each other while using no batteries11.
Auroras were reported across the globe: Adelaide, Australia; Boston, Massachusetts; Concepcion, Chile; Durham, England; Geneva, Switzerland; Halifax, Canada; Krakow, Poland; Oslo, Norway; Wakayama, Japan. 225 locations reported aurora sightings over those two days12.
The storm was recorded by British astronomers Richard Carrington (thus the name) and Richard Hodgson. If a storm of its magnitude were to happen today, there would be many risks for electrical disruptions, blackouts, and damage to global power grids13.
Chat, are we cooked?
While large sunspots have the potential to launch powerful solar flares like those during the Carrington Event, there are other factors to consider as well. Configuration of the magnetic field and explosion frequency are also important elements of solar flares14. Some sunspots can be gentle giants if they aren't very active, while others can carry superstorms.
While flares have already occurred while on the far side of Earth (and thus not impacting us), there's no clear signs yet of a superstorm the likes of the Carrington Event13. There have been two back-to-back explosions (Nov 11-12) that were classified as X-class flares, triggering severe geostorms that created widespread auroras across North America15.
Apart from auroras (which, somehow, I have still yet to witness myself despite their recent popularity!!), there's no evidence to suggest the Solar cycle 25 will have anything close to the disruptions seen in 185914.
So keep an eye out for beautiful green lights over the next few years, and maybe don't invest in telegraph equipment.
A word from a passing frog
I've got some exciting news coming very soon! I'd keep an eye out at the end of this week, if I were a betting person. But you didn't hear it from me.
(Though if you'd like to tell people to subscribe to The Frog Pond before then, or give me a follow online, I'd sure appreciate it!)
Writing
I've been working on a couple projects while waiting on pass pages (the final, FINAL version of the book I'll approve before it goes to production!) and blurbs to come back (!!!) for A FATE WORSE THAN DROWNING. One is a novel about séances, late 19th Century Spiritualism, forerunners of Nova Scotian folklore, and the decaying secrets between childhood friends brought back to life. The other is a Holidays-themed short story I'm writing for a reading coming up this month!
I also became a member of the Horror Writers Association and the Writers Federation of Nova Scotia!
I want to spend the rest of the year focused on enjoying time with family around the holidays (I get to meet my baby niece for the first time!!), getting caught up on end-of-year reading, and preparing the shift gears into my next project without letting it overshadow the first two.
Next year is going to be a lot. Hopefully a lot of great things. My debut novel's launch! Possible travel and publishing events! Meeting awesome authors and readers! Working on my next book! But all this is only possible if I take care of myself, both mentally and physically. Turns out, working a full-time day job and writing at all hours for evenings and weekends is not easy—who would've thunk? If things go well in publishing, I'm only going to get busier, but not necessarily in that "quit your day job" kind of way. I don't have all the answers on finding balance, but I've got a good few decades of experience in what helps and what hurts. Some lessons I want to keep in mind (since, unfortunately, I tend to forget my own lessons):
More time doesn't mean more productivity.
If I sit at my computer for 8 hours, I likely will get the same amount of work done as if I was there for 3—just in those last 3 hours. Budgeting smaller blocks of protected time will help me way more than having an all or nothing approach to writing days.
Suffering doesn't earn you happiness.
A mopey Sarah is not a productive Sarah, no matter how much my depression likes to bait me into believing it. "If it sucks, hit the bricks" can apply to a writing session!
Growing is uncomfortable.
Doing new things, like public readings or conferences or sharing your soul with thousands of people in the form of a few hundred pages of bound paper, is scary. Especially to one with anxiety! "Do it scared" is an important element of bridging into new and interesting things.
It's okay to ask questions.
Often, it's necessary! There's no reason to be afraid of not seeming to know enough when you have a trusted team or mentor you can ask. And sometimes something doesn't make sense because it doesn't make sense, not because you can't understand it.
Time away from the keyboard isn't optional.
I must sound like a major workaholic but there's a comfort in the known, even if it also gives you cabin fever. Decision paralysis or just plain old "stay on the couch and rot"-style anxiety can rear their heads in sticking to the keyboard all weekend as well. Life has to happen, and I have to be an active participant in it! Otherwise, what am I writing about?
When you can't keep up with a few hobbies, something has to give.
I like having a creative hobby, an active hobby, and an unproductive hobby. For example: Painting, swimming, and video games. If I'm not keeping up with those hobbies, even just once a week, then I'm likely not taking care of myself in other ways.
You didn't suddenly become a hack, you're probably just sad.
Or comparing yourself. Or scared of the unknown. Or hungry! Feelings of inadequacy, envy, fear, self-judgement, etc. don't do anything to diminish your accomplishments or your potential.
Reading
I've got a few books on the go right now, including:
Roadside Picnic by Arkady and Boris Strugatsky
House of Leaves by Mark Z. Danielewski
Project Hail Mary by Andy Weir
Kind of all over the place, from 70s Russian horror/sci-fi to found footage-based 00's horror to harder recent sci-fi. I'm also hoping to get to Motheater by Linda H. Codega and The Third Wife of Faraday House by B.R. Myers, both I bought at a second hand book store last month. I've also got We Speak Through the Mountain by Premee Mohamed that just came in through Libby and Red Rising by Pierce Brown that I've heard so many good things about—so if I can sneak those in before the new year, that'd be awesome!
Footnotes
1: https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/explore/lessons/sunspots6_8.html
2: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convection
3: https://www.nasa.gov/image-article/active-regions-sun/
4: https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2013/10/aa21653-13/aa21653-13.html
5: https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
6: https://www.weather.gov/news/201509-solar-cycle
7: https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018A&A...620A.120W
9: Gonzalez, W. D., J. A. Joselyn, Y. Kamide, H. W. Kroehl, G. Rostoker, B. T. Tsurutani, and V. M. Vasyliunas (1994), What is a Geomagnetic Storm?, J. Geophys. Res., 99(A4), 5771–5792.
10: https://www.livescience.com/carrington-event
11: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0273117706000160
